The ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is bringing to light Armenia’s deteriorating relationship with its traditional ally, Russia. Despite being a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Armenia has found itself unable to rely on Russia’s support in the current crisis, resulting in a massive shock to the the country’s security apparatus and its population.
Previously, Russia and Armenia shared a strong political, economic and military relationship. In particular Putin’s government had been supplying the latter with military aid, resulting in Russian-made weapons becoming the mainstay of the Armenian military. This relationship quickly soured this year, however, when Russia refused to intervene in the 44 days of fighting between the two neighbours. Despite political uproar in Yerevan, Moscow was quick to deny any suggestion that it had abandoned Armenia, citing neutrality as the basis of their decision.
The refusal has highlighted the limits of Russian military support for Armenia, and in particular its failure to honour its commitments as part of the EAEU and CSTO. This unwillingness to intervene serves as a stark reminder to Yerevan that the alliance with Moscow was never built upon ties of solidarity or loyalty. Rather, the relationship was always one of convenience, with Armenia relying heavily on Russian military assistance while Russia needed Armenia’s support in order to maintain its presence in the South Caucasus region.
The crisis has opened the eyes of many in Armenia. It is now clearer to the public that the alliance with Russia should not be taken for granted. The country will have to look to other partners like the West in order to secure its safety and prosperity. As much as Yerevan would prefer that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue be solved without any outside help, it is clear that forging closer ties with the likes of the US and Europe may prove to be essential if Armenia is to be successful in negotiating a peaceful resolution to this crisis.