Poland recently announced that they will no longer be sending arms to Ukraine in order to help them defend against Russia-backed separatists in the east. It is a move that has been met with both dismay and criticism in the country and abroad, raising questions as to why Poland has decided to abandon its commitment in helping the Ukrainian government battle the separatists. The decision has come after months of increased tension between the two countries over the conflict in Ukraine and represents a major change in the political dynamics of the region.
To understand the current situation between Poland and Ukraine, one must first go back to 2014, when the Ukrainian government was overthrown by pro-Russia politicians in the wake of the Euromaidan revolution. Since then, the country has been divided between forces loyal to the new government in Kiev and ethnic Russian separatists in the east. In response to the outbreak of violence, the Ukrainian government appealed to its allies for support in the fight against the separatists. Poland, being a member of NATO and the European Union, was one of the first countries to answer the call and began providing civilian and military aid to Ukraine.
Poland’s decision to stop arming Ukraine has prompted speculation as to why the country has withdrawn its support. Some commentators have highlighted Poland’s poor relations with Russia as a possible factor in the decision, with the two countries embroiled in a variety of diplomatic disagreements. Although the Polish government has denied any direct influence from Russia, as of late there has been a trend of Poland choosing diplomatic gestures of goodwill over military ones when it comes to relations with Russia and Ukraine.
The abandonment of its commitment to Ukraine is not the only cause for concern for Poland’s Allies either. In recent months, the country has adopted measures that limit the ability of the Ukrainian government to defend itself from Russian aggression. Such measures were previously seen as a way for Poland to demonstrate its commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, but now appear to suggest an apprehension of provoking further conflict.
In the immediate future, Poland’s decision to abandon the Ukrainian government is likely to weaken the latter’s ability to repel the separatists’ advances and may even push them into further territory. The consequences of such a move will depend on the actions of the other countries involved in supporting Ukraine, as well as those of the Ukrainian government itself. For now however, it is clear that Poland has chosen diplomacy over armed support and as a result, has changed the political dynamics of the situation in Ukraine.